A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
