Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
